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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Virginia Tech

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:61.0
Current RPI:61
Expected SOS:71
Current SOS:71
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:122
Expected OOC SOS:325



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1161.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Detroit (318.0)HorzH111-79W100%0.0
11-12The Citadel (281.0)SCH132-93W100%0.0
11-16Saint Louis (148.0)A10N77-71L0%0.0
11-17Washington (71.0)P12N79-103W100%0.0
11-21Houston Baptist (345.0)SlndH99-73W100%0.0
11-25Morehead St. (292.0)OVCH96-63W100%0.0
11-28Iowa (157.0)B10H79-55W100%0.0
12-2Mississippi (141.0)SECA80-83W100%0.0
12-6Radford (128.0)BSthH95-68W100%0.0
12-10Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACH93-40W100%0.0
12-16Kentucky (10.0)SECA93-86L0%0.0
12-19Presbyterian (319.0)BSthH63-55W100%0.0
12-28North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACH76-59W100%0.0
12-31Syracuse (45.0)ACCA68-56L0%0.0
1-3Virginia (1.0)ACCH52-78L0%0.0
1-6Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCH81-67W100%0.0
1-10Wake Forest (160.0)ACCA75-83W100%0.0
1-13Louisville (38.0)ACCA94-86L0%0.0
1-20Florida St. (54.0)ACCH82-91L0%0.0
1-22North Carolina (4.0)ACCH80-69W100%0.0
1-27Notre Dame (70.0)ACCA75-80W100%0.0
1-31Boston College (96.0)ACCA80-85W100%0.0
2-3Miami FL (28.0)ACCH75-84L0%0.0
2-7North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCH85-75W100%0.0
2-10Virginia (1.0)ACCA60-61W100%0.0
2-14Duke (7.0)ACCA74-52L0%0.0
2-17Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCA56-76W100%0.0
2-21Clemson (11.0)ACCH65-58W100%0.0
2-24Louisville (38.0)ACCH68-75L0%0.0
2-26Duke (7.0)ACCH64-63W100%0.0
3-3Miami FL (28.0)ACCA69-68L0%0.0
3-7Notre Dame (70.0)ACCN65-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Virginia Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Virginia Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Virginia TechACC26.0326.0362.6862.686.606.60
LouisvilleACC3.733.7358.0658.060.600.60
VirginiaACC3.723.7296.7796.773.483.48
Notre DameACC3.703.7058.0658.060.600.60
DukeACC3.683.6880.6580.652.252.25
Miami FLACC3.633.6368.9768.971.381.38
North CarolinaACC2.312.3173.5373.531.091.09
Boston CollegeACC2.222.2257.5857.580.340.34
Florida St.ACC2.212.2163.3363.330.590.59
PittsburghACC2.212.2125.8125.81-1.07-1.07
ClemsonACC2.192.1974.1974.191.061.06
North Carolina St.ACC2.162.1667.7467.740.770.77
SyracuseACC2.162.1659.3859.380.410.41
Georgia TechACC2.162.1641.9441.94-0.35-0.35
Wake ForestACC2.142.1436.6736.67-0.57-0.57
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
PresbyterianBSth1.661.6628.5728.57-0.71-0.71
RadfordBSth1.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
KentuckySEC1.631.6369.7069.700.640.64
DetroitHorz1.611.6120.6920.69-0.95-0.95
The CitadelSC1.611.6128.5728.57-0.69-0.69
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.611.6117.2417.24-1.06-1.06
Houston BaptistSlnd1.591.5911.1111.11-1.24-1.24
Saint LouisA101.591.5948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC1.591.5938.7138.71-0.36-0.36
IowaB101.561.5643.7543.75-0.20-0.20
Morehead St.OVC1.561.5623.0823.08-0.84-0.84
WashingtonP121.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
TennesseeSEC0.240.2475.7675.760.120.12
UNC GreensboroSC0.200.2077.4277.420.110.11
IndianaB100.190.1951.6151.610.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.170.1787.8887.880.130.13
FloridaSEC0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
VMISC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
CampbellBSth0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.150.1540.7440.74-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.150.1575.0075.000.070.07
LongwoodBSth0.130.1313.3313.33-0.09-0.09
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
WinthropBSth0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1324.2424.24-0.06-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.126.676.67-0.11-0.11
DuquesneA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
La SalleA100.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
DavidsonA100.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
BelmontOVC0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
FurmanSC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
HowardMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.333.33-0.09-0.09
UCLAP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
LSUSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
West VirginiaB120.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
LamarSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0832.0032.00-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.080.0882.7682.760.050.05
SamfordSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0715.6215.62-0.05-0.05
SeattleWAC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
NavyPat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
IllinoisB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
AuburnSEC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
BryantNEC0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
ElonCAA0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
TexasB120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
VCUA100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
StanfordP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
KansasB120.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
PurdueB100.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
SouthernSWAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0612.5012.50-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0532.3532.35-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.038.008.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
HofstraCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
TempleAmer0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
USCP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
TroySB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01